NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Mike Vrabel’s best Titans’ teams won some surprises, pulling off upsets. They also produced some duds, losing matchups where they were expected to win.
NFL ebb and flow explained it some. But the extremes were really extreme.
In 2019, they beat the eventual No. 1 AFC seed Chiefs, but bombed against the Panthers (5-11) and split with the Jaguars (6-10).
In 2020, they pounded the Bills after the Covid layoff, but lost to the Bengals (4-11-1).
And in 2021, they beat the Chiefs who went on to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed again and the Saints, the NFC’s No. 2 seed, but lost to the 4-13 Jets.
Those duds have some thinking Vrabel’s 4-2 Patriots, who shocked the Bills on Sunday Night Football in Week Four, could lose in Nashville to the 1-5 Titans, who are likely to get a boost in their first game under interim coach Mike McCoy.
I don’t see it.
Since we knew Vrabel was the Patriots coach and that they’d play here against the team that fired him following the 2023 season, I’ve expected a bloodbath. New England is better than I expected, the Titans are worse, so nothing has changed my mind.
Rare is the occasion when I predict a Titans game. I have to have a strong gut feeling. Certainly, it could go the other way. Unpredictability is the core reason for the NFL’s popularity. But the gut can’t help what the gut feels.
Vrabel says his return is interesting but not important.
He’ll bring a fondness for plenty of people: The 10 remaining guys who played for him, the equipment staff, the security folks who guard the tunnels, the chain gang, some personnel folks and many others.
I imagine he’ll take the high road if there is room to interact with Amy Adams Strunk, Burke Nihill and/or Chad Brinker, but I certainly expect Strunk will avoid him. I expect the people who control the Jumbotron will too. In the second-to-last year of this Nissan Stadium, expect a record low for shots of the visiting coach.
Fans should, and I believe will, find a moment to salute the guy I believe was the best coach they’ve had. (Yes, the end was ugly and offensive staff selections were questionable. The good was very good. The strategy and methodology, the buy-in from the best players, were generally great.)
The Titans are averaging 13.8 points a game, the Patriots, 25.
New England’s offense carries an EPA of 28.92 (eighth). Drake Maye has the fourth-best passer rating in the NFL at 112.5.
Vrabel finds weaknesses and attacks them. The Titans have a lot, starting with rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who’s struggling mechanically and failing to complete enough passes. He isn’t likely to have Calvin Ridley (hamstring).
Chig Okonkwo sees the vengeance factor.
“In his situation, how else would he view it?” Okonkwo said. "He's going into the place where he got let go from, I’m definitely sure he wants to get a win and a win would feel even better than normal.
“A punishing win? Shit, I ain’t letting that happen. I want a punishing win. This is a game I’ve been waiting for, so can’t let that happen.”
The Titans’ five losses have come by margins of 8, 22, 21, 26 and 10.
Don’t be surprised if this one tops the list.
