NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The defining move of the Chad Brinker/Mike Borgonzi partnership will be what they do with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
They'll go that direction if they judge either Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward as a franchise quarterback.
But if they do not, they will look to deal the pick and collect as much as possible in a trade to give them the sort of picks necessary to be the draft-and-develop organization Brinker described after he assumed authority over all football matters when Ran Carthon was fired.
Fans and media alike will contemplate trade scenarios until the Titans pick or make a deal. Right now, the best place to play executive is Pro Football Network’s mock draft simulator.
It’s fun to play with these, and I run through some and pass them on to friends while they do the same. But PFN surely wants the simulator to be as interactive as possible to draw people back to it again and again. I think it does that by making/ accepting a lot of trade offers.
I inquired as to the methods it uses.
"The system is based on the Rich Hill chart, with future picks downgraded by a round," said Pro Football Network's product director Ben Rolfe. "We then have an accepted allowance that allows trades which is not 100% even or advantageous to the AI.
"There is also a slight variation in these numbers each time you draft to try and ensure there is a different experience for the user and to reflect the fact that not everyone uses the same value charts."
Recently as I jumped on to do a run-through, I was greeted with SIX offers for the No. 1 pick before I started.
I broke them down to check the value, first on the Jimmy Johnson trader chart, which seems to be to still be the backbone of most valuation, then with the Rich Hill chart PFN leans on. They downgrade a future pick to the tenth pick a round lower. In this exercise, I downgraded it to the middle of the next round.
BROWNS
On the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, still the backbone of a lot of what the NFL bases things on, the slew of picks the Browns offer amounts to 3,738 points vs. the Titans’ 3,000. The difference is equal to the value of slightly less than the 24th pick in the draft. Even if Tennesssee loves one of the quarterbacks, an offer like this would be incredibly tempting.
Is it realistic?
Well, here is some contact.
When the Texans jumped from 12th to third in 2023 in a deal with the Cardinals, they gave up the 12th and 33rd picks and 2024 first and thirds in exchange for No. 3 and No. 105. Pass rusher Will Anderson was the prize at No. 3.
Houston gave up 2,284 points for 1,834 points from Arizona, using estimated value for future picks and devaluing a round for the year wait, that 450-point difference was worth the 45th pick in the second round.
I'd say this 738-point win would be a great trade for Tennessee, and if the Browns don't bounce back next season, the estimated value of that second-rounded next year could turn into better real value.
Rich Hill chart: Titans win by 67 points, value of the 72nd pick in the third round.
GIANTS
This is an awfully good haul too.
The Titans “win” 3,288 to 3,000 with Jimmy Johnson. That 288-point difference amounts to the 61st pick in a draft, near the end of the second round. That’s a decent QB tax for the Giants to get in position to choose Sanders or Ward.
Rich Hill chart: Titans win by 67 points, the value of the 72nd pick in the third round.
RAIDERS
Not nearly as good.
The Raiders side adds up to 2,995, so it’s five points short of balanced with the Titans' first pick at 3,000 and the side giving up the big prize needs to win. Sub the Raiders 2026 first-rounder for their second-rounder and it’d be more in the ballpark, netting the Titans the equivalent of a pick right at the edge of the transition from the first to the second round.
I didn't do counters here, but when I have stuff like that has been accepted.
Rich Hill chart: Titans lose by 211 points, the value of roughly the 28th pick in the first round.
JETS
Also not nearly as good as the Giants' or Browns' offers.
The Jets’ five picks total up to 2,393 points, 607 short of the worth of the Titans’ No. 1.
Swap the 2026 second for a first and the net return would still be a 2025 late-second-round pick short of even.
Rich Hill chart: Titans lose by 294 points, roughly the value of the 17th pick in the draft.
SEAHAWKS
This adds up to only 1,709 in Jimmy Johnson points. Toss in next year’s first, estimated 1,000 points, and the Titans might start to negotiate if all the other deals weren't in play.
Rich Hill chart: Brutal. The Titans lose by 532 points. That's worth the No. 3 overall pick plus 129 in the late fourth.
STEELERS
That’s worth 1,579 points. Omar Khan wouldn’t make such an insulting phone call even as a conversation starter.
Rich Hill chart: Horrible here. The Titans lose by 520 points, the equivalent of the third overall pick in the draft plus 187 in the sixth round.
FOR COMPARISON
When the Titans dealt the No. 1 pick to the Rams in 2016, the predicted return using mid-round estimations devalued by a round for future picks had the Titans give up 3088.6 and get 2644 on the Jimmy Johnson chat and gave up 1,035 and got 786 on the Rich Hill chart.
With the Rams having a poor year in 2016, the Titans did get good picks in the first and third round in the 2017 draft from L.A.