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In discussing Titans' offensive predictability, let's use numbers that matter and show full context

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- A nice info gif from @TitansTalk_ is making the round among fans as evidence for how predictable the Mike Mularkey-Terry Robiskie offense has been through seven games.

I do not disagree that the offense has been bad. No objective observer can say differently.

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But the graphic lacks a great deal of context. (Its authors ultimately revised it, and the new version is here.) It tells us the Titans have run 109 times on first down. But it doesn't tell us if that's a lot, or what percentage of first down plays that amounts to. Without knowing how often the Titans pass on first down, 109 runs on first down tells us nothing.

I've looked through ESPN numbers and I've got the Titans with 190 first-down plays, 102 runs and 88 passes. That's 54 percent run and 46 percent pass. That's not far from 50-50, and 50-50 is the definition of unpredictable.

Second down is worse, with the Titans running 58 percent of the time (78) and passing 42 percent (57).

Third-down is going to be pass-heavy anywhere, but it's too pass heavy in Tennessee because of the early-down production.

Again, I'm not saying the Titans are an unpredictable offense by any means.

But throwing out 109 pass attempts on first down as evidence that they are predictable isn't a very good leadoff for the argument.

A few more details:

On first-and-10, the Titans have run 90 times for an average of 4.63 yards and passed 84 times for an average of 5.59 yards. That's less than a yard different, and the gain is more important than the route to the gain.

First-down efficiency is generally defined as a play that gains at least four yards on first-and-10. The Titans have done that 51.8 percent of the time, the sixth-highest number in the NFL.

The teams ahead of them -- New England, Kansas City, New Orleans, Atlanta and Washington -- all rank in the top eight in NFL offense.

On the list of issues the Titans need to solve, first down doesn't rank nearly as high as some are suggesting.

Look to third down, where the Titans rank 27th with a 34.8 percent conversion rate for starters.

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