NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Teams should try to win.

I hate the tanking mentality, and I think fans overestimate the ability of teams to get the draft right based on positioning, especially when there is no clear premium target, and even sometimes when there is. See Lawrence, Trevor.

Brian Callahan and Will Levis
Brian Callahan and WIll Levis/ Angie Flatt

As the Titans try to learn everything they can about Will Levis this season, a poor record and better picks may be a consequence but it’s not a goal.

Perhaps it gets you a Joe Alt instead of a JC Latham. Or maybe not. Bill Callahan sure seemed to love Latham. Variations in judgment are fine and can’t be evaluated quickly. Perhaps it gets you a trade down, though, in Ran Carthon’s two drafts, we’ve not seen him execute one trade back for a team that’s desperately needed more picks.

Fans of bad teams spend too much time dreaming about the magic fix who’s going to show up in the draft.

How many of them have arrived in the history of this franchise?

I count nine franchise-changing players in 24 drafts from 1999-2023.

  • Jevon Kearse
  • Keith Bulluck
  • Albert Haynesworth
  • Michael Roos
  • Chris Johnson
  • Jurrell Casey
  • Derrick Henry
  • Kevin Byard
  • A.J. Brown

Does the psychology of sports hope and a GM who will be drafting for the third time -- the second with full final say – still con you into thinking losses are a feature of the season?

There is no prize QB at the end of this year, and the odds of taking one and simply restarting the cycle the Titans are in are high. As my friend Joe Rexrode says, the right play is to bet against all such QBs. You’ll win far more often than you will lose. Also, 2026 is more promising than 2025.

The Titans don't stop trying at quarterback because they've failed repeatedly at the position, of course, but they are on the verge of oh-for-five at QB in the top three rounds across multiple regimes. Barring a remarkable turnaround by Levis, they'll need to another shot, this year or next. They could chase Sam Darnold to try to revive Zach Wilson or Trey Lance.

And it's going to be a draft-based franchise. Latham and T'Vondre Sweat have both had promising starts. Jarvis Brownless is a significant piece already. I'm not suggesting they shouldn't keep finding guys like them, and they are foundational pieces. But the Titans need superstars at premier, touch-the-ball positions.

In that same 1999-2023 period, the Patriots hit on twice as many franchise-changers including the sort of all-time great that changes a franchise’s essence. A Tom Brady or someone a tier below is the key to the hope. Find him and everything changes. The odds are tiny. But we’re wired to root, just like we’re wired to pull the slot machine handle over and over. 

I’m losing confidence in Levis like everyone else, but there is nothing else to do this season. 

Watching a mid-level backup in Mason Rudolph gives the Titans a chance to win a couple of select games in the same fashion they’ve always won, instead of hopefully building the more complete offense that was advertised with the hiring of Brian Callahan and the addition of Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard and Tyler Boyd.

Levis went from inexcusable mistakes in Week One and Week Two to more traditional errors in Week Three (predetermining a throw, under-estimating a top-level corner and not getting a great route from DeAndre Hopkins) and Week Four (failing to see a defensive lineman dropping into coverage).

Kurt Warner has offered great analysis on Twitter about why those picks happened. Aaron Rodgers threw one Sunday very similar to what Levis did against the Dolphins. I understand the young quarterback making such mistakes. But let's include that while a dropping lineman is not a key in what he's looking at, he is allowed to see him come into the picture, just as Rodgers was. 

The next step for Levis is slightly better anticipation and vision.

Those are certainly possible, even as he will be dealing with a sore throwing shoulder.

The time Levis needs if he’s to have a long-term chance is probably more than the Titans can offer. If he makes it – big if – he could fall into a Baker Mayfield/ Derek Carr category in time. It could be well after his Tennessee experience expires. (I cover this in more detail in Rationale for Patience with Will Levis which I wrote after three games.)

The best scenario is for the Titans to find wins with Levis. 

The one at Miami didn’t do a lot to change my feelings about what the Titans can do. The Dolphins were shockingly bad. But the Colts are bad. The Patriots are bad. Jacksonville is bad. Cincinnati is talented but beatable. The Titans probably aren’t sweeping division rivals or beating everyone they can compete with. Though there is bound to be a good surprise somewhere in there. 

Six or seven wins -- popular preseason predictions -- are still viable numbers.

And so we’ll circle back to where it starts: What can Levis show them throughout what should be an overall growth season? We don’t have a verdict yet, but rooting for losses and a draft savior is folly.